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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to HOU 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-38-B.Russell.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.68 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP