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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to HOU 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-B.Berrios to HOU 24 for 8 yards (38-B.Russell).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.46 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model