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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to LV 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-A.Bachman to LV 35 for 25 yards (36-J.Chestnut).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.11 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model