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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 95

Tennessee Titans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to TEN 25 for 20 yards (11-J.Chinn).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.18 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 95, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 53, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.27 EP