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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(5:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 5-E.Ayomanor to LV 29 for 11 yards (22-E.Stokes; 44-T.Eichenberg).

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model