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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 10

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.38 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP