Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

(13:01) 3-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to LV 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-A.Bachman to LV 30 for 4 yards (52-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model