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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 14-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.03 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model