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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to TEN 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model