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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 3-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to LV 41, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.56 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model