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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to TEN 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.08 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model