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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 3-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to LV 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.08 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP