Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(11:19) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to LV 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at LV 45 for 18 yards (54-D.Mausi).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.48 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model