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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to NYG 19, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 34 for 15 yards (54-J.Trotter).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.64 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model