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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 89

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – New York Giants 34

What Actually Happened

(8:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 20 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.63 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 89, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model