Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 64

New York Giants 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(13:03) 12-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to PHI 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 34 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton; 53-D.Muasau).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.31 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model