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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to NYG 21, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 34 for 13 yards (21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.67 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP