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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 62

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 80-G.Olszewski ran ob at NYG 10 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.87 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model