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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 6

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.19 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 6, worth +0.75 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model