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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 10

Detroit Lions 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.08 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model