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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.20 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.89 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model