Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 78

Detroit Lions 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(7:26) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to KC 30, Center-49-H.Hatten. 81-N.Remigio to DET 49 for 21 yards (3-J.Fox).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.79 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model