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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 14-M.Araiza punts 46 yards to DET 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.00 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP