Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 60

Detroit Lions 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(:17) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to KC 11, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP

64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.59 EP
36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -1.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model