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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(7:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 1-X.Worthy (12-T.Harper) [34-A.Anzalone].

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.83 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 19, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model