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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 47

Denver Broncos 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(1:42) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 1-E.Engram pushed ob at NYJ 36 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model