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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 44

New York Jets 11 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP