Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 74

New York Jets 11 – Denver Broncos 13

(3:43) 14-A.McNamara punts 58 yards to DEN 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.51 EP
73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model