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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 80

New York Jets 11 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to DEN 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model