Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 79

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 11

(1:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 62 yards to NYJ 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 24 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.92 EP
54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model