Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 67

New York Jets 11 – Denver Broncos 10

(2:49) 14-A.McNamara punts 49 yards to DEN 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.67 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model