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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 20

New York Jets 6 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model