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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 45

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 29 yards to NYJ 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.32 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP