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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 88

New York Jets 6 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to DEN 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-M.Mims to DEN 41 for 6 yards (27-M.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.61 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 88, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model