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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 40-H.Luepke for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model