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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 40

Carolina Panthers 27 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.75 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model