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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 27 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to DAL 37, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-J.Moreno-Cropper to DAL 46 for 9 yards (20-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.13 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 84, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 42, worth -2.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model