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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 9

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Carolina Panthers 27

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 17-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model