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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 13

Carolina Panthers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 10-R.Fitzgerald 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.31 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 13, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP