Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 20 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-J.Moreno-Cropper MUFFS catch, and recovers at DAL 17. 16-J.Moreno-Cropper to DAL 27 for 10 yards (48-T.Incoom).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.25 EP
63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model