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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(:25) 10-R.Fitzgerald 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.95 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model