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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to CAR 22 for 8 yards (2-M.Jackson). Penalty on CAR-2-M.Jackson, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.02 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model