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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 21

Green Bay Packers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 18

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 35-L.Havrisik 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.35 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model