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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 35 yards to CIN 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.35 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP