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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to CIN 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-C.Jones to CIN 37 for 13 yards (33-E.Williams; 16-B.Melton).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.47 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model