4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 39

Washington Commanders 24 – Chicago Bears 22

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 10-T.Way punts 30 yards to CHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP