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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 62

Chicago Bears 13 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:25) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to WAS 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.61 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -2.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model