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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 32

Washington Commanders 7 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 16-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.06 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model