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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model