Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Buffalo Bills 7

(:21) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to BUF 31, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.73 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -2.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model